Unit Affiliation: Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)
DESCRIPTION: The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is of central importance in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts but remains difficult to predict. An outstanding problem is that models have difficulty simulating or predicting the propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent. This deficiency results in a “prediction barrier.” Overcoming this barrier is a challenge because its precise cause or causes are unknown. Proposed causes include poor representation of the diurnal cycle, biases in mean climate and failure to capture precursor signals. Our project seeks to improve both understanding and prediction of the MJO, focusing on the relation of the MJO to the Maritime Continent.
OUTCOMES: Assessed predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation and seasonal precipitation variations in California.
Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data Driven Approach
Predictability of Atlantic Hurricane Activity by the NMME Coupled Models
Process Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models