Quantifying Risks From Changing U.S. PM2.5 Distributions Due to Climate Variability and Warming with Large Multi-Model Ensembles and High-Resolution Downscaling

Lead PI: Arlene H. Fiore

Unit Affiliation: Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)

January 2016 - December 2020
North America ; United States
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The overarching goal of our project is to quantify changes in air pollution meteorology, and the resulting PM2.5 distributions in U.S. surface air, in order to estimate time-evolving air pollution risks over the next five decades.

OUTCOMES: We are conducting dynamical downscaling targeting years of particular interest for regional fine particulate matter over the U.S.A. and working to place these simulated results in the context of a larger statistical distribution provided by global chemistry-climate models, to develop a more probabilistic framework for air quality planning in light of meteorological variability and change


Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)




Mike Previdi


University of North Carolina Chapel Hill


Guo, J. J., Fiore, A. M., Murray, L. T., Jaffe, D. A., Schnell, J. L., Moore, T., and Milly, G. (2018), Average versus high surface ozone levels over the continental U.S.A.: Model bias, background influences, and interannual variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12123-12140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018.

Rieder, H. E., Fiore, A. M., Clifton, O. E., Correa, G., Horowitz, L. W. and Naik, V. (2018), Combining model projections with site-level observations to estimate changes in distributions and seasonality of ozone in surface air over the U.S.A, Atmospheric Environment, 193, 302-315, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.07.042.

Chen, K., A.M. Fiore, R. Chen, L. Jiang, B. Jones, A. Schneider, A. Peters, J. Bi, H. Kan, P.L. Kinney (2018), Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study, PLoS Med 15(7): e1002598, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002598.
Nora Rose Mascioli, 2018, Impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate: extreme events, stagnation, and the United States warming hole, Columbia University Academic Commons, https://doi.org/10.7916/D8X368FV.

Lin, M. Y., L.W. Horowitz, R. Payton, A.M. Fiore, G. Tonnesen (2017), US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980-2014: Quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2943-2970, doi:10.5194/acp-17-2943-2017.

Mascioli, N., A.M. Fiore, M. Previdi, M. Ting (2017), Timing and seasonality of the United States “warming hole”, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 034008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4.

Westervelt, D.M., L.W. Horowitz, V. Naik, A.P.K. Tai, A.M. Fiore, and D.L. Mauzerall (2016), Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model, Atmos. Environ., 1352-2310, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.07.040.


climate variability global chemistry-climate models air pollution anthropogenic emissions dynamical downscaling natural emissions particulate matter climate warming


Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate