Atlantic Climate Variability - Dynamics, Prediction and Hurricane Risk

Lead PI: Prof. Adam Sobel , Dr. Suzana J. Camargo

Unit Affiliation: Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)

July 2017 - June 2018
North America ; United States ; Caribbean
Project Type: Research Outreach

DESCRIPTION: The Workshop on Atlantic Climate Variability – Dynamics, Prediction and Hurricane Risk took place on Columbia University’s Morningside Campus on Friday September 8, 2017.

The North Atlantic ocean and the atmosphere above it are the locus of strong variability on time scales from interannual to multi-decadal and longer time scales. What causes this variability, and how predictable is it? The answer is important to assessments of hurricane risk, because variations in the climate state of the Atlantic strongly influence hurricane activity in the region. Yet fundamentally different views exist, with some attributing variability mainly to the unforced ocean dynamics of the thermohaline circulation and others emphasizing the passive response of the ocean mixed layer to atmospheric forcing. These different views have divergent implications for the predictability of Atlantic climate generally and hurricane risk in particular, and the question is highly relevant to the insurance and reinsurance industries as well as other applications.

This one-day workshop will address the causes and predictability of Atlantic climate variations and associated hurricane risk. The conference will feature invited talks by leading experts and panel discussions to engage attendees. We anticipate attendance by a mix of academic and industry scientists, and look forward to vibrant interactions on a topic of great importance to both groups.