Testing the Scenario Hypothesis: The Effect of Alternative Characterizations of Uncertainty on Decision Structuring

Lead PI: David Krantz

Unit Affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)

May 2011 - April 2013
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: This research investigates the use of scenarios in decision making by comparing decisions using decision-support tools that provide forecasts either by presenting best-estimate probabilities or by presenting alternative scenarios.

OUTCOMES: 2011-2013: Researchers will conduct experiments on decision-making using a hypothetical fisheries example to measure the probability with which the subjects identify the successful adaptive strategy, or make the "right" decision. The results of the experiments will shed light on the social and psychological processes involved in complex, deeply uncertain policy decisions.