Vulnerability of the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone to Changes in Drifting Ice

Lead PI: Stephanie Pfirman , Dr. Bruno Tremblay , Dr. Robert Newton
Unit Affiliation: Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)
July 2006 - December 2010
Inactive
Arctic
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The marginal ice zone (MIZ) is one of the most important and dynamic features in the Arctic. The PIs will conduct an integrated analysis of how delivery of sea ice to the MIZ changed in the past and what changes might be in store in the future. Using a sea ice dynamic model forced with contemporaneous atmospheric fields and including tracers, they will track the origin and transport pathways of sea ice, and the focused release of material from ice melting in the MIZ. They will then extend this analysis back into the past, to examine changes during the Holocene, and into the future, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change scenarios. They will investigate mixing of ice from different source areas into the Arctic interior; and assess how interannual and seasonal variability in ice from different source regions has influenced, and may influence in the future, redistribution and delivery of freshwater, sediments and biological material.

This research integrates models with existing data into a new framework, that of an ice conveyor which transports material across the Arctic basin and releases it in the environmentally sensitive MIZ. Through this project the PIs will examine:

-How has the distribution, origin, and age of ice delivered to various MIZ regions changed over time, and during critical seasons, i.e. the spring bloom?

-How have changes in ice drift influenced the delivery of freshwater, sediments, and biological material? How are these changes related to observed changes in atmospheric, oceanic, sedimentologic, and ecologic conditions?

-How have changes varied regionally and with respect to water depth? For example, when does maximum ice melt - and therefore material release - occur over deep waters of central Fram Strait vs. over the shallow Greenland Shelf in western Fram Strait?

-What changes in the distribution, origin, age, and MIZ flux of ice might we expect in the future? What might be the impact of these changes?

SPONSOR: National Science Foundation (NSF)
FUNDED AMOUNT: $344,068
WEBSITE: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0612455
PUBLICATIONS: Tremblay, L. B., M. M. Holland, I.V. Gorodetskaya, G.A. Schmidt. "An ice-free Arctic? Opportunities for Computational Science," Journal of Computing in Science and Engineering, v.9, 2007. Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, L. B. Tremblay. "Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice," Geophysical Research Letters, v.33, 2006. doi:10.1029/2006GL028024 Johnson, N.C., S.B. Feldstein, B. Tremblay. "The Continuum of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and a Description of the NAO Shift with the Use of Self-Organizing Maps," Journal of Climate, 2008. Dmitrenko, I.A, S.A. Kirillov, L.B. Tremblay. "The long-term and interannual variability of summer fresh water storage over the eastern Siberian shelf: implication for climatic change," Journal of Geophysical, v.113, 2008. doi:10.1029/2007JC004304 Gorodetskaya, I.V., L. B. Tremblay, B. Liepert, M. A. Cane, R. I. Cullather. "The influence of cloud and surface properties on the Arctic Ocean shortwave radiation budget in coupled models," Journal of, v.21, 2008, p. 866. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1614.1 Dmitrenko, I.A., S.A. Kirillov, L. B. Tremblay, D. B. Bauch, M. M. Makhotin. "Atmospheric vorticity amplifies seasonal hydrographic cycle over the eastern Siberian shelf''," Geophysical Research Letters, v.35, 2008. doi:10.1029/2007GL032739 Sedlacek, J., J.F. Lemieux, L. Mysak, B. Tremblay, D. Holland. "The granular sea ice model in spherical coordinates and its application to a global model'," Journal of Climate, v.20, 2007. Pfirman, S., B. Tremblay, C. Fowler. "Going with the Floe? An Analysis of the Epic Expeditions of Fridtjof Nansen and Sir Ernest Shackleton," AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2007. Hoff, K., S. Pfirman, B. Tremblay, B. Newton. "Effects of retreating Arctic sea ice on walrus and other marine mammals," Ocean Sciences Spring Meeting Abstracts, 2008. Jahn, A., B. Tremblay, L. A. Mysak, and R. Newton. "Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export, Climate Dynamics," Climate Dynamics, 2009. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0558-z, Cullather, R., B. Tremblay. "``Analysis of sea ice anomalies in a coupled model control simulations''," Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 180, edited by E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L.-B. Tremblay,, v.180, 2009, p. 187. Holland, M., B. Tremblay, D. Bailey, C.M. Bitz. ""The role of natural versus forced changes in future rapid summer Arctic ice loss",," Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 180, edited by E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L.-B. Tremblay, v.180, 2008, p. 133. Gorodetskaya, I., B. Tremblay,. "Role of cloud radiative forcing in sea ice changes in the 20th and 21st century'',," Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 180, edited by E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L.-B. Tremblay, v.180, 2008, p. 47. Lemieux, J.F., B. Tremblay, S. Thomas, J. Sedlacek, L. Mysak. "``Using the Generalized Minimum RESidual method to solve the sea-ice momentum equation''," Journal of Geophysical Research, v.113, 2008. doi:10.1029/2007JC004680 Johnson, N.C., S.B. Feldstein, B. Tremblay. "``The Continuum of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and a Description of the NAO Shift with the Use of Self-Organizing Maps''," Journal of Climate, 2008. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2380.1 Pfirman, S.; Hoff, K.; Temblay, B.; Fowler, C.. "Creating Arctic Sea Ice Protected Areas?," American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U13C-0075, 2008. Pfirman, S. B. Tremblay, C. Fowler. "Going with the Floe? An analysis of the epic expeditions of Fridtjof Nansen and Sir Ernest Shackleton," American Scientist, v.97, 2009, p. 484. Pfirman, S., C. Fowler, B. Tremblay, R. Newton. "The Last Arctic Sea Ice Refuge," The Circle, v.4, 2009, p. 6. Pfirman S, B. Tremblay. "We still have a chance to save polar bears," New Scientist, v.30, 2009. Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Newton, R.; Fowler, C.. "Marginal Ice Zone Flux and Variability," American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, v.abstrac, 2009. Pfirman S, B. Tremblay. "``Polar bears last stand'' We still have a chance to save polar bears," New Scientist, v.30, 2009. Dyck, S; Tremblay, LB; de Vernal, A. "Arctic sea-ice cover from the early Holocene: the role of atmospheric circulation patterns," QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, v.29, 2010, p. 3457. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.05.00 Dmitrenko, IA; Kirillov, SA; Tremblay, LB; Bauch, D; Holemann, JA; Krumpen, T; Kassens, H; Wegner, C; Heinemann, G; Schroder, D. "Impact of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic water layer on Siberian shelf hydrography," JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, v.115, 2010. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1029/2009JC00602 Jahn, A; Tremblay, LB; Newton, R; Holland, MM; Mysak, LA; Dmitrenko, IA. "A tracer study of the Arctic Ocean's liquid freshwater export variability," JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, v.115, 2010. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1029/2009JC00587 Lemieux, JF; Tremblay, B; Sedlacek, J; Tupper, P; Thomas, S; Huard, D; Auclair, JP. "Improving the numerical convergence of viscous-plastic sea ice models with the Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method," JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS, v.229, 2010, p. 2840. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2009.12.01 Vancoppenolle, M; Goosse, H; de Montety, A; Fichefet, T; Tremblay, B; Tison, JL. "Modeling brine and nutrient dynamics in Antarctic sea ice: The case of dissolved silica," JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, v.115, 2010. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1029/2009JC00536 Jahn, A; Tremblay, B; Mysak, LA; Newton, R. "Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export," CLIMATE DYNAMICS, v.34, 2010, p. 201. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0558- Dmitrenko, IA; Kirillov, SA; Tremblay, LB; Bauch, D; Willmes, S. "Sea-ice production over the Laptev Sea shelf inferred from historical summer-to-winter hydrographic observations of 1960s-1990s," GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, v.36, 2009. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1029/2009GL03877 Lemieux, JF; Tremblay, B. "Numerical convergence of viscous-plastic sea ice models," JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, v.114, 2009. View record at Web of Science doi:10.1029/2008JC00501

KEYWORDS

sea ice modeling freshwater marginal ice zone (miz) ice drift

THEMES

Earth fundamentals

Research Projects

Vulnerability of the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone to Changes in Drifting Ice

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Keyword: sea ice