NMME: A US National Multi-Model Ensemble ISI Prediction System

Lead PI: Dr. Michael K. Tippett

Unit Affiliation: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

Unknown start date - Ongoing
North America ; United States
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: This research leverages an existing National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) team that has already formed and is already producing routine real-time intra-seasonal, seasonal and interannual (ISI) predictions and providing them to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on an experimental basis for evaluation and consolidation as a multi-model ensemble ISI prediction system. The experimental prediction system developed by this NMME team is as an “MME of opportunity” in that the ISI prediction systems are readily available and each team member has independently developed the prediction protocol.

The activity develops a more “purposeful MME” in which the requirements for operational ISI prediction are used to define the parameters of a rigorous reforecast experiment and evaluation regime. The NMME team will design and test an operational NMME protocol (i.e., a purposeful MME) that is to guide the future research, development and implementation of the NMME beyond what can be achieved based on an “MME of opportunity.”