Subseasonal NMME Forecasts: Skill, Predictability, and Multi-model Combinations

Lead PI: Dr. Michael K. Tippett

Unit Affiliation: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

Unknown start date - Ongoing
Active
North America
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: This project proposal is to systematically diagnose predictability and skill on subseasonal time scales (14-60 days) of all North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models, and to develop a statistically informed protocol for generating multi-model, subseasonal predictions. The statistical methodology for these goals has been developed in previous research but not yet applied systematically to subseasonal forecasts. The researchers will diagnose predictability and skill of all NMME models using the same objective criteria for all relevant lead times, target days, and models.

SPONSOR:

NOAA

RESEARCH TEAM:

Timothy DelSole, Kathleen Pegion

EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS:

George Mason University

THEMES

Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate