Updating New York State ClimAID Projections Using CMIP6 Models

DESCRIPTION:

Climate projections for New York State estimate how physical variables like temperature, rainfall, heat waves, heavy storms, and sea level may change between now and the end of this century. The team used the newest global climate models—a group of models called the CMIP6 suite, which are widely accepted as the most up-to-date tools—and applied them to New York State, generating specific projections for each region of the state and comparing them with historical data.

Many of the projections come from analyses performed specifically for the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment by a team at Columbia University. Columbia’s projections for most variables show how New York’s climate will change compared with a baseline period (1981–2010), which is based on historical observed data at weather stations throughout the state. Sea level was projected for three locations that also have many decades of historical data for comparison.