Multi-Breadbasket Failures and Shocks to Food Systems: AgMIP Simulations

DESCRIPTION: AgMIP modeling tools are well-suited to support food shock analyses at regional, national, and global
scales across a range of time horizons. These analyses also contribute an evidence base that supports
policy-making for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, especially SDG#2 (Zero Hunger),
as well as the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction. A specific challenge is the potential for food
shocks caused by simultaneous breadbasket failures in multiple locations across the globe to overwhelm
food systems. However, impacts and effective responses will differ according to the type of multi-
breadbasket failure that occurs. Key parts of the food system – i.e., production, supply chains, trade, and
consumption -- will be affected differently, as will crop and livestock commodities owing in part to
substitution effects and regional dynamics. New scientific and technical advances in AgMIP will facilitate
simulation sets that can help the US to develop and enhance early warning and resilience to such
shocks.