Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

Lead PI: Dr. Michael K. Tippett

Unit Affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)

September 2010 - August 2013
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The project will identify unforced predictable components and distinguish them from forced predictable components on decadal time scales. Unforced components will be isolated using a high Average Predictability Time which will be further separated using optimal fingerprinting techniques.

OUTCOMES: Work has so far established a scientific basis for decadal predictions by identifying patterns in climate models that are predictable and showing that they are also predictable in observed climate systems. Found that mean annual precipitation is only predictable to three years at most.