Developing an Optimum Multi-Model ENSO Prediction

Lead PI: Mr. Anthony G. Barnston

Unit Affiliation: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

August 2012 - July 2016
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The work will substantially improve the calibration and multimodel ensembling inadequacies to create a more accurate multimodel deterministic and probabilistic ENSO prediction with a more user-friendly format.

OUTCOMES: So far: hindcast data for a set of dynamical and statistical models was developed; a framework for experimenting with multi-model ensembles and diagnosing resulting skills was established, for ease of comparison among results of differing consolidation methodologies; initial comparisons were performed on simple consolidation alternatives; and a candidate format for displaying the improved plume was developed.