Evaluation of the Impact of Changing Climate on Food Security Through Global Agriculture Models

Lead PI: Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig

Unit Affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)

September 2010 - September 2015
Inactive
Global ; United States
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: This project aims to develop an infrastructure for the international research community and establish a Steering Group from agronomic, resource economics, and climate modeling groups; identify and recruit leaders and contributors for the crop modeling, economics, climate scenarios, and infrastructure teams, with an emphasis on attracting experts on major agricultural production areas and important markets as well as capacity and network building; conduct a workshop for all participants to review the current science and establish the project goals; develop agricultural modeling requirements and protocols, scale-up procedures, and reporting formats for project guidance website; and establish/identify sentinel sites for ground-truthing models.

OUTCOMES: The second Global Workshop of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Program (AgMIP) was held in October 2011 and included reports from the climate assessment, crop modeling, information technology, and economic assessment project teams. Protocols have been developed for each of these teams to describe the activities and outcomes of their efforts. A Steering Committee has been established and provides guidance to the overall AgMIP effort. Model intercomparisons are underway for wheat and maize and these will be completed in late summer 2012. Model intercomparison efforts are underway for sugarcane, rice, millet, and peanuts. The emphasis for a North American regional workshop will be on crop model improvement with the linkage of changing carbon dioxide concentrations, temperature, and available soil water and their interactions on crop growth and development and how these are handled in the crop models. This workshop was held in Ames, IA, on September 4-7, 2012.

SPONSOR:

Department of Agriculture

FUNDED AMOUNT:

$353,341

PUBLICATIONS:

Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J.W., Hatfield, J.L., Ruane, A.C., Boote, K.J., Thorburn, P., Antle, J.M., Nelson, G.C., Porter, C., Janssen, S. and Asseng, S., 2013. The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, pp.166-182.

KEYWORDS

crop modeling global climate models climate and society steering group agricultural production climate modeling

THEMES

Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate