Dr. Alexey Kaplan

PUBLICATIONS

Wane, D., Giannini, A., Kaplan, A. and Gaye, A.T., 2025. An imminent return to drought in the western Sahel? Science Advances, 11(34), 10.1126/sciadv.adu5415 (Journal link). Local copies: Paper in PDF; Supporting Information Supporting Material in PDF.

Slivinski, L.C., G.P.Compo, J.S.Whitaker, P.D.Sardeshmukh, B.S.Giese, C.McColl, R.Allan, X.Yin, R.Vose, H.Titchner, J.Kennedy, L.J.Spencer, L.Ashcroft, S.Broennimann, M.Brunet, D.Camuffo, R.Cornes, H.A. Cram, R.Crouthamel, F.Dominguez-Castro, J.E.Freeman, J.Gergis, E.Hawkins, P.D.Jones, S.Jourdain, A.Kaplan, H.Kubota, F.L.Blancq, T.Lee, A.Lorrey, J.Luterbacher, M.Maugeri, C.J.Mock, G.K.Moore, R.Przybylak, C.Pudmenzky, C.Reason, V.C.Slonosky, C.Smith, B.Tinz, B.Trewin, M.A.Valente, X.L.Wang, C.Wilkinson, K.Wood, P.Wyszynski, 2019: Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, first published: 03 July 2019, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598

Giannini, A., and A. Kaplan, 2019: The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery, Climatic Change, 152, 463-480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9 Journal link To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Kent, E.C., J.J. Kennedy, T.M. Smith, S. Hirahara, B. Huang, A. Kaplan, D.E. Parker, C.P. Atkinson, D.I. Berry, G. Carella, Y. Fukuda, M. Ishii, P.D. Jones, F. Lindgren, C.J. Merchant, S. Morak-Bozzo, N.A. Rayner, V. Venema, S. Yasui, and H. Zhang, 2017: A Call for New Approaches to Quantifying Biases in Observations of Sea Surface Temperature. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 1601-1616, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00251.1 Journal link To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Evans, M.N., J.E. Smerdon, A. Kaplan, S.E. Tolwinski-Ward, and J.F. González-Rouco, 2014: Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 9127–9134, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062063. Journal link To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, and D.E.Amrhein, 2013: Reply to “Comments on ‘Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications,’” J. Climate, 26, 3485–3486. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00165.1 To download in PDF Supplementary Website

Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L.V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F.J. Dentener, E.J. Dlugokencky, D.R. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B.J. Soden, P.W. Thorne, M. Wild and P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. To download in PDF from the IPCC website

Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L.V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F.J. Dentener, E.J. Dlugokencky, D.R. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B.J. Soden, P.W. Thorne, M. Wild and P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. Supplementary Material. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Available from www.climatechange2013.org and www.ipcc.ch. To download in PDF from the IPCC website

Karspeck, A.R., A.Kaplan, and S.R.Sain, 2012: Bayesian modelling and ensemble reconstruction of mid-scale spatial variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures for 1850-2008. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, 234-248. doi: 10.1002/qj.900 Journal link To download in PDF.

Kaplan, A., 2011: Patterns and indices of climate variability [in "State of the Climate in 2010"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92(6), S161-S163. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., 2011: Discussion of B.B.McShane and A.J.Wyner "A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?", Annals of Applied Statistics, 5, 47-51.
http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1300715172
Local copies: Paper in PDF Supp. material

Smerdon, J. E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J. F. González-Rouco, and M. N. Evans, 2011: Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372. To download in PDF Auxiliary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, D.Chang, and M.N.Evans, 2011: Corrigendum: A pseudoproxy evaluation of the CCA and RegEM methods for reconstructing climate fields of the last millennium, J. Climate, 24, 1284-1309. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, and D.E.Amrhein, 2010: Erroneous model field representations in multiple pseudoproxy studies: Corrections and implications. J. Climate, 23, 5548-5554, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3742.1. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, D.Chang, and M.N.Evans, 2010: A pseudoproxy evaluation of the CCA and RegEM methods for reconstructing climate fields of the last millennium, J. Climate, 23, 4856-4880, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3328.1. To download in PDF Supplementary materials Please note the correction: Smerdon et al. 2011 listed above; to download the corrected version in PDF.

Arbuszewski, J., P.deMenocal, A.Kaplan, E.C.Farmer, 2010: On the fidelity of shell-derived delta O-18 seawater estimates, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 300, 185-196. To download in PDF

Rayner, N.A., A.Kaplan, E.C.Kent, R.W.Reynolds, P.Brohan, K.S.Casey, J.J.Kennedy, S.D.Woodruff, T.M.Smith, C.Donlon, L.A.Breivik, S.Eastwood, M.Ishii, T.Brandon, 2010: Evaluating climate variability and change from modern and historical SST observations, In: Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison, D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.71 Official link To download in PDF (OceanObs'09 website) (local copy)

Ilin, A., and A.Kaplan, 2009: Bayesian PCA for reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures, In: Proceedings of International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2009), Atlanta, GA, USA, June 14-19, 2009, paper 0246, pp.1322-1327. To download in PDF

Karnauskas, K.B., R.Seager, A.Kaplan, Y.Kushnir, M.A.Cane, 2009: Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, J. Climate, 22, 4316-4321. To download in PDF

Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, and D. Chang, 2008: On the origin of the standardization sensitivity in RegEM climate field reconstructions, J. Climate, 21, 6710-6723. To download in PDF

Linsley, B.K., P.Zhang, A.Kaplan, S.S.Howe, and G.M.Wellington, 2008: Interdecadal-decadal climate variability from multicoral oxygen isotope records in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region since 1650 A.D., Paleoceanography, 23, PA2219, doi:10.1029/2007PA001539. To download in PDF

Ihara, C., Y.Kushnir, M.A.Cane, and A.Kaplan, 2008: Timing of El Nino-related warming and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, J. Climate, 21, 2711-2719. To download in PDF

Smerdon, J.E., and A. Kaplan, 2007: Comment on "Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate" by Mann et al. (J.Climate, 18:4097-4107, 2005): The role of the standardization interval, J.Climate, 20, 5666-5670. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Huang, H.-P., A.Kaplan, E.N.Curchitser, and N.A. Maximenko, 2007: The degree of anisotropy for mid-ocean currents from satellite observations and an eddy-permitting model simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C09005, doi:10.1029/2007JC004105. To download in PDF

Farmer, E. C., A. Kaplan, P. B. de Menocal, and J. Lynch-Stieglitz, 2007: Corroborating ecological depth preferences of planktonic foraminifera in the tropical Atlantic with the stable oxygen isotope ratios of core top specimens, Paleoceanography, 22, PA3205, doi:10.1029/2006PA001361. To download in PDF

Emile-Geay, J., M. Cane, R. Seager, A. Kaplan, and P. Almasi, 2007: El Nino as a mediator of the solar influence on climate, Paleoceanography, 22, PA3210, doi:10.1029/2006PA001304. To download in PDF

Black, D. E., M.A. Abahazi, R.C. Thunell, A. Kaplan, E.J. Tappa, and L.C. Peterson, 2007: An 8-century tropical Atlantic SST record from the Cariaco Basin: Baseline variability, twentieth-century warming, and Atlantic hurricane frequency, Paleoceanography, 22, PA4204, doi:10.1029/2007PA001427. To download in PDF

Kent, E.C. and A. Kaplan, 2006: Toward estimating climatic trends in SST. Part III: Systematic biases, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 23(3), 487-500. To download in PDF

Karspeck, A.R., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, 2006: Predictability loss in an intermediate ENSO model due to initial error and atmospheric noise, J.Climate, 19(15), 3572-3588. To download in PDF

Linsley, B.K., A.Kaplan, Y.Gouriou, J.Salinger, P.B.deMenocal, G.M.Wellington, S.S.Howe, 2006: Tracking the extent of the South Pacific Convergence Zone since the early 1600s, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q05003, doi:10.1029/2005GC001115. To download in PDF

Evans, M.N., B.K. Reichert, A. Kaplan, K.J. Anchukaitis, E.A. Vaganov, M.K. Hughes, and M.A. Cane, 2006: A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data, J. Geophys. Res., 111, G03008, doi:10.1029/2006JG000166. To download in PDF

Anchukaitis, K.J., M.N.Evans, A.Kaplan, E.A.Vaganov, H.D.Grissino-Mayer, M.K.Hughes, and M.A.Cane, 2006: Forward modeling of regional-scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought. Geophysical Res. Lett., 33(4), L04705, doi:10.1029/2005GL025050. To download in PDF

Gorodetskaya, I.V., M.A. Cane, L.-B. Tremblay, A. Kaplan, 2006: The effects of sea-ice and land-snow concentrations on planetary albedo from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Atmosphere-Ocean, 44(2), 195-205. To download in PDF

Fairbanks, R.G., T.-C. Chiu, L. Cao, R.A. Mortlock, and A. Kaplan, 2006: Rigorous quality control criteria for screening coral samples and radiocarbon calibration data based on 14C, 230Th/234U/238U and 231Pa/235U dated corals - A reply to the comment by Yusuke Yokoyama and Tezer M. Esat on "Extending the radiocarbon calibration beyond 26,000 years before present using fossil corals" by T.-C. Chiu, R.G. Fairbanks, R.A. Mortlock, A.L. Bloom (Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1797-1808), Quaternary Science Reviews, 25(2), 3084-3087. To download in PDF

Shaman, J., M.A.Cane, A.Kaplan, 2005: The relationship between Tibetan snow depth, ENSO, river discharge and the monsoons of Bangladesh. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 26(17), 3735-3748. To download in PDF

Fairbanks, R.G., R.A.Mortlock, T.-C.Chiu, L.Cao, A.Kaplan, T.P.Guilderson, T.W.Fairbanks, A.L.Bloom, P.M.Grootes, M.-J. Nadeau, 2005: Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0-50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/234U/238U and 14C dates on pristine corals. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 1781-1796. doi:10.1016/j.quascierev.2005.04.007. To download in PDF

Curchitser, E.N., D.B. Haidvogel, A.J. Hermann, E.L. Dobbins, T.M.Powell, and A.Kaplan, 2005: Multi-scale modeling of the North Pacific Ocean: Assessment and analysis of simulated basin-scale variability (1996-2003), J. Geophysical Res., 110, C11021, doi10.1029/2005JC002902. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., M.A. Cane, D. Chen, D.L. Witter, R.E. Cheney, 2004: Small-scale variability and model error in tropical Pacific sea level. J. Geophysical Res., 109, C02001, doi:10.1029/2002JC001743. To download in PDF

Evans, M.N. and A. Kaplan, 2004: The Pacific sector Hadley and Walker Circulations in historical marine wind analyses, in The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future. H.F.Diaz and R.S. Bradley (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherland, 239-258. To download in PDF

Black D.E., R.C. Thunell, A. Kaplan, L.C. Peterson, and E.J.Tappa, 2004: A 2000-year record of Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic hydrographic variability, Paleoceanography, 19, PA2022, doi:10.1029/2003PA000982. To download in PDF

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S.E. Zebiak, and D.Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Nino over the past 148 years, Nature, 428, 733-736. To download in PDF

Seager, R., A. Karspeck, M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Giannini, A. Kaplan, B. Kerman, J. Velez, 2004: Predicting Pacific decadal variability. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate Variability. C. Wang and S.-P. Xie and J. A. Carton, ed., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, pp.115-130. 25MB in PDF

Kaplan A., M.A. Cane, and Y. Kushnir, 2003: Reduced space approach to the optimal analysis interpolation of historical marine observations: Accomplishments, difficulties, and prospects, in Advances in the Applications of Marine Climatology: The Dynamic Part of the WMO Guide to the Applications of Marine Climatology, WMO/TD-1081, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 199-216 [Downloadable from ftp://ftp.wmo.int/Documents/PublicWeb/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-10-CLIMAR-99/Presentations/session_07/07.3_Kaplan.pdf. It is also available as a local copy here].
Please note a correction to the page 213 of this paper available at ftp://ftp.wmo.int/Documents/PublicWeb/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-13-Marine-Climatology/JCOMM-TR-13-Correction-p-213.pdf! A local copy of this correction is here.

Rayner, N.A., D.E. Parker, E.B. Horton, C.K. Folland, L.V. Alexander, D.P. Rowell, E.C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res., 108(14), 10.1029/2002JD002670. To download in PDF

Evans, M. N., A. Kaplan, and M.A. Cane, 2002: Pacific sea surface temperature field reconstruction from coral d18O data using reduced space objective analysis, Paleoceanography, 17(1), 10.1029/2000PA000590. To download in PDF

Cullen, H.M, A. Kaplan, P. Arkin, P. deMenocal, 2002: Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climatic Change, 55, 315-338. To download in PDF

Cañizares, R., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, D. Chen, S.E. Zebiak, 2001: Use of data assimilation via linear low order models for the initialization of ENSO predictions. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 30947-30959. To download in PDF

Evans M.N., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, and R. Villalba, 2001: Globality and optimality in climate field reconstructions from proxy data, in V. Markgraf (ed.) Present and Past Inter-Hemispheric Linkages in the Americas and Their Societal Effects., Cambridge University Press, p. 53-72. To download in PDF

Evans, M.N., M.A. Cane, D.P. Schrag, A. Kaplan, B.K. Linsley, R. Villalba and G.M. Wellington, 2001: Support for tropically-driven Pacific decadal variability based on paleoproxy evidence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3689-3693. To download in PDF

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, R. Cañizares, and A. Kaplan, 2000: Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2585-2588. To download in PDF

Kaplan A., Y. Kushnir, M.A. Cane, 2000: Reduced space optimal interpolation of historical marine sea level pressure: 1854-1992, J. Climate, 13, 2987-3002. To download in PDF

Evans, M., A. Kaplan, and M. Cane, 2000: Intercomparison of coral oxygen isotope data and historical sea surface temperature (SST): Potential for coral-based SST field reconstructions, Paleoceanography, 15, 551-563. To download in PDF

Black, D.E., L.C. Peterson, J.T. Overpeck, A. Kaplan, M. Evans, M. Kashgarian, 1999: Decade- to century-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic revealed by an 825-year marine laminated sediment record. Science, 286, 1709-1713. To download in PDF

Evans, M., A. Kaplan, and M. Cane, 1998: Optimal sites for coral-based reconstruction of sea surface temperature, Paleoceanography, 13, 502-516. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18567-18589. To download in PDF

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, and A. Kaplan, 1998: The impact of sea level assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/1998 El Niño, 1998: Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2837-2840. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., Y. Kushnir, M. Cane, and M. Blumenthal, 1997: Reduced space optimal analysis for historical datasets: 136 years of Atlantic sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 27835-27860. To download in PDF

Cane, M.A., A.C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, R. Murtugudde, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, and S.E. Zebiak, 1997: Twentieth century sea surface temperature trends. Science, 275, 957-960. To download in PDF

Cane, M.A., A. Kaplan, R.N. Miller, B. Tang, E.C. Hackert, and A.J. Busalacchi, 1996: Mapping tropical Pacific sea level: data assimilation via a reduced state space Kalman filter. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22599-22617. To download in PDF

Reverdin, G., A. Kaplan, and M. Cane, 1996: Sea level from temperature profiles in the tropical Pacific Ocean 1975-1992. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 18105-18119. To download in PDF

Basniyev, K.S. and A.G. Kaplan, 1993: Utilization of the natural thermogravitational effects in the extractive working of gas condensate-oil fields. Transactions of the Russian Academy of Sciences (translations from Russian), 318, 1328-1331.

Rapoport, L.I. and A.G. Kaplan, 1989: Elastic wave velocities and absorption in porous media saturated with an anomalously compressible fluid. Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Izvestiya. Physics of Solid Earth (translations from Russian), 25, 63-65.