Gernot Wagner
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Senior Lecturer in the Discipline of Economics in the Faculty of Business, Columbia Business School
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Faculty Affiliate, Center for Environmental Economics and Policy (CEEP)
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Faculty Fellow, CESifo
Faculty Director, Climate Knowledge Initiative, Tamer Center for Social Enterprise
Board Member, CarbonPlan
Columnist, Project Syndicate -
392 Kravis Hall
665 West 130th Street
New York, NY United States 10027
USA
BIOGRAPHY:
Gernot Wagner is a climate economist at Columbia Business School. His research, writing, and teaching focus on climate risks and climate policy. Gernot writes a monthly column for Project Syndicate and has written four books: Geoengineering: the Gamble, published by Polity (2021); Stadt, Land, Klima (“City, Country, Climate”), published, in German, by Brandstätter Verlag (2021); Climate Shock, joint with Harvard's Martin Weitzman and published by Princeton (2015), among others, a Top 15 Financial Times McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2015, and Austria’s Natural Science Book of the Year 2017; and But will the planet notice?, published by Hill & Wang/Farrar Strauss & Giroux (2011).
Prior to joining Columbia as senior lecturer and serving as faculty director of the Climate Knowledge Initiative, Gernot taught at NYU, Harvard, and Columbia. He was the founding executive director of Harvard's Solar Geoengineering Research Program (2016 – 2019), and served as economist at the Environmental Defense Fund (2008 – 2016), most recently as lead senior economist (2014 – 2016) and member of its Leadership Council (2015 – 2016). He has been a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, and is a CESifo Research Network Fellow, a Faculty Affiliate at the Columbia Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, a Member of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a Coordinating Lead Author of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change, and he serves on the board of CarbonPlan.org.
RECENT POSTS FROM STATE OF THE PLANET 
Grist: "Wall Street is betting big on clean energy tech"
When the NASDAQ opens on Wednesday morning, the exchange will include a new ticker symbol: FRVO. The company, Fervo Energy, is in the geothermal electricity business and aims to raise $1.8 billion. An initial public offering of that magnitude would be one of the biggest Wall Street debuts for renewable energy in U.S. history and a promising sign for clean tech’s future.
“This is a very, very big deal,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School. “Money speaks.”
“If Fervo demonstrates that there is money to be made for investors,” said Wagner, that “is going to draw a lot of attention well beyond just the narrow advanced geothermal community.”
Quoted in: "Wall Street is betting big on clean energy tech" by Tik Root, Grist (13 May 2026).
Advice for the Class of 2026: Get ready for uncertainty
It's a cliche by now to say we live in unprecedented, uncertain, erratic times. We are. The path is indeed highly uncertain. The end result, meanwhile, may not be.
Take climate: It's clear that all paths essentially lead to an unprecedented—there's that word again—disruption to the current, fossil-fueled economy. The end result: a fully electrified transport sector—yes, EVs are only a question of when, not if—and the building sector and even industry aren't far behind. The path to get there is highly uncertain and could happen in any number of ways.
The career advice, here and elsewhere? Keep that end state in mind—working against it won't, can't, be the basis for a career that spans the next 3, 4, or 5 decades—while also getting ready for any number of uncertainties along the way.
Quoted in: "Advice for the Class of 2026" by Jonathan Sperling, Columbia Business School (8 May 2026).
Climate Investment Funds: "GHG Baseline Modelling for Industry Decarbonization"
"Economics of Decarbonizing Cement"
12 May 2026, 8:00-9:45 a.m.
Slides [PDF]
Part of a Virtual Clinic on: "From Measurement to Investment: GHG Baseline Modelling for Industry Decarbonization" (8:00-11:00 a.m.), organized by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) as part of the World Bank's Sustainable Industrialization Program:
This program equips industrial companies, policymakers, and ecosystem partners with practical tools and specialized knowledge to build productive, resilient, and value‑adding industrial systems. It strengthens technical and strategic capabilities across resource‑efficient manufacturing, circularity, digitalization, environmental and social performance, and low‑carbon transitions. Delivered through three progressive modules, the program enables participants to apply learning in practice, upgrade industrial value chains, and support long‑term, sustainable growth. The program provides specialized knowledge and practical tools to support the development of productive, resilient, and value added industrial systems through sustainable industrialization.
Grist: "American homes need heat pumps, not space heaters"
The U.S., though, can’t simply replace all of its furnaces and space heaters with heat pumps and call it a day, energy experts said. It must happen alongside a push to make homes more efficient, like by installing proper insulation and double-pane windows. That is, a home needs to retain more heat in the winter and cool air in the summer, so a heat pump would need to run less. “Step one, don’t burn fossil fuels in your home, basically,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School, who wasn’t involved in the new report. “Step two: insulate, insulate, insulate. And both of those go hand-in-hand.”
The grid, too, needs upgrades if heat pumps are to reach their full potential. For one, ideally you’re powering them with electricity coming entirely from renewables like wind and solar, otherwise you’re still burning fossil fuels to warm homes. (Though to be clear, because heat pumps are so efficient, this is still better than sticking with gas furnaces.) And two, heat pumps join electric vehicles and induction stoves in increasing demand on the grid.
Quoted in: "American homes need heat pumps, not space heaters" by Matt Simon, Grist (5 May 2026).
KONTEXT Zirkel
KONTEXT Zirkel mit Tina Deutsch
10:55 – 11:10 | Gast-Impuls (15 Min)
Gernot Wagner, Climate Economist - Columbia Business School: über die aktuelle geo- und klimapolitische Lage
PUBLICATIONS
Books
Wagner, Gernot. Geoengineering: the Gamble (Polity Press, published on 24 September 2021 in the UK, 5 November 2021 in the U.S. and Canada); German: Und wenn wir einfach die Sonne verdunkeln? (oekom Verlag, 7 February 2023).
Wagner, Gernot. Stadt, Land, Klima (Chr. Brandstätter Verlag, 8 February 2021; written in German; English: “City, Country, Climate”).
Wagner, Gernot and Martin L. Weitzman. Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet (Princeton University Press; 2015; paperback, 2016); Top 15 Financial Times McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2015; Austria’s Natural Science Book of the Year 2017.
Articles
Merk, Christine and Gernot Wagner. “Presenting balanced geoengineering information has little effect on mitigation engagement,” Climatic Change (forthcoming).
Kotchen, Matthew J., James A. Rising, and Gernot Wagner. “The costs of “costless” climate mitigation.” Science 382(6674): pp. 1001-3 (30 November 2023). doi: 10.1126/science.adj2453
Wagner, Gernot and Daniel Zizzamia “Green Moral Hazards.” Ethics, Policy & Environment 25(3): pp. 264-80 (September 2022). doi: 10.1080/21550085.2021.1940449
Dietz, Simon, James Rising, Thomas Stoerk, and Gernot Wagner. “Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system,” PNAS (24 August 2021). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2103081118
Daniel, Kent D., Robert B. Litterman, and Gernot Wagner. “Declining CO2 price paths,” PNAS (1 October 2019). doi: 10.1073/pnas.1905755116
Reynolds, Jesse L. and Gernot Wagner. “Highly decentralized solar geoengineering.” Environmental Politics (2019). doi: 10.1080/09644016.2019.1648169
Kelleher, J. Paul and Gernot Wagner. “Ramsey discounting calls for subtracting climate damages from economic growth rates.” Applied Economics Letters 26 (1): 79-82 (2019). doi:10.1080/13504851.2018. 1438581
Kelleher, J. Paul and Gernot Wagner. “Prescriptivism, risk aversion, and intertemporal substitution in climate economics.” Annals of Economics and Statistics No. 132 (December 2018): 129-49.
Smith, Wake and Gernot Wagner. “Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment.” Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018) 124001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d.
Mahajan, Aseem, Dustin Tingley, and Gernot Wagner. “Fast, cheap, and imperfect? U.S. public opinion about solar geoengineering.” Environmental Politics (May 2018), doi:10.1080/09644016. 2018.1479101